Sat, Apr 7, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 114 | 112 | 234 |
| COL | 112 | 217 | 210 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:14COLSamuel GirardAssists: Blake Comeau, Carl Soderberg · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 6:11COLTyson BarriePPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 12:28STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 16:58COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 16:37COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–4
- P3 19:22STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 19:51COLMatt NietoENAssists: Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:51COLMark Barberio: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:52STLRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:02STLVince Dunn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:11STLNikita Soshnikov: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 10:59COLMark Barberio: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:08STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:08COLTyson Jost: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Schenn – Schwartz7:19
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Jaskin – Barbashev3:49
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Schwartz – Jaskin2:50
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Sundqvist – Soshnikov2:53
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Bortuzzo8:17
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Dunn2:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Butler – Parayko2:12
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:08
xG 1.09–0.29 (79%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Andrighetto – Jost10:17
xG 0.59–0.12 (83%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Wilson – Bourque – Compher6:06
xG 0.20–0.16 (56%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Comeau – Soderberg – Nieto10:13
xG 0.27–0.39 (41%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov8:39
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nemeth2:15
xG 0.34–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard3:04
xG 0.35–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).