Sat, Apr 7, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 6, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 37 | 15 | 624 |
| SJS | 25 | 07 | 118 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:53MINJonas BrodinAssists: Charlie Coyle, Tyler Ennis · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:52MINMatt CullenAssists: Tyler Ennis, Louie Belpedio · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 15:28SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Marcus Sorensen, Joel Ward · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 16:32SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 11:19MINMikael GranlundAssists: Jordan Greenway, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 11:47MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Mathew Dumba · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 15:25MINJason ZuckerAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Louie Belpedio · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 18:50SJSTimo MeierAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Brent Burns · Deflected, 0.02 xG5–3
- P3 19:34MINEric StaalENUnassisted · Snap, 0.60 xG6–3
Penalties (3)
- P3 3:23MINTyler Ennis: Holding2 min
- P3 15:02MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:17SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Niederreiter12:38
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Koivu – Granlund – Greenway12:30
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Cullen – Ennis – Coyle11:47
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Winnik – Foligno – Eriksson Ek11:37
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestProsser – Belpedio13:39
xG 0.86–0.53 (62%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
- Seeler – Murphy16:57
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Brodin – Dumba17:48
xG 0.43–0.46 (49%)attempts 13–17goals 2–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Boedker – Hertl7:11
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Kane2:53
xG 0.07–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Kane – Donskoi8:30
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Couture – Boedker – Meier2:12
xG 0.08–0.18 (30%)attempts 3–2goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun14:49
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Martin – Burns15:18
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Burns – Vlasic3:36
xG 0.06–0.02 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).