Wed, Oct 3, 2018·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 09 | 217 | 235 |
| VAN | 110 | 05 | 48 | 523 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:48VANElias PetterssonAssists: Loui Eriksson, Nikolay Goldobin · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 1:52VANNikolay GoldobinAssists: Elias Pettersson, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 2:20VANBrendan LeipsicGWGAssists: Jay Beagle, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–3
- P3 3:08CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Austin Czarnik, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 5:46VANJake VirtanenAssists: Brandon Sutter, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–4
- P3 8:08CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, James Neal · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 19:12VANTyler MotteENAssists: Markus Granlund · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:50VANErik Gudbranson: Interference2 min
- P1 4:22VANErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:22CGYTravis Hamonic: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:23VANErik Gudbranson: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:41CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:21VANBrandon Sutter: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:25VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:33VANJake Virtanen: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:48VANDerrick Pouliot: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:22VANBrendan Leipsic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Gaudreau – Monahan4:07
xG 0.67–0.08 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Backlund – Czarnik – Tkachuk4:15
xG 0.66–0.30 (69%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Frolik – Jankowski – Bennett4:40
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk6:41
xG 0.42–0.16 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin11:24
xG 0.92–0.16 (85%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Giordano – Hanifin2:11
xG 0.42–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie11:42
xG 1.21–0.89 (58%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Granlund – Leipsic6:22
xG 0.69–0.03 (96%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Goldobin – Pettersson5:25
xG 0.28–0.39 (41%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Sutter – Motte – Virtanen11:07
xG 0.40–0.94 (30%)attempts 5–17goals 1–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser10:18
xG 0.52–1.31 (29%)attempts 6–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pouliot10:16
xG 0.87–0.28 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 3–0
- Edler – Tanev11:37
xG 0.25–1.03 (19%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
- Del Zotto – Stecher15:13
xG 0.24–1.61 (13%)attempts 4–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).