Wed, Oct 3, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 14 | 36 | 515 |
| SJS | 111 | 115 | 07 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:49ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:51SJSEvander KaneAssists: Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 17:14SJSTomas HertlSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 18:00ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Getzlaf · Slap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 8:02ANABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Ryan Getzlaf · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 10:22ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 19:36ANACarter RowneyENAssists: Ben Street, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.72 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:47ANAJosh Manson: Interference2 min
- P1 4:03SJSJoe Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:52ANAPontus Aberg: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:13ANAJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:24SJSEvander Kane: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:08SJSLogan Couture: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thornton won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Street – Rowney – Sherwood11:08
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Terry13:59
xG 0.13–0.50 (21%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Aberg – Steel11:11
xG 0.00–0.55 (0%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Comtois9:30
xG 0.28–0.87 (24%)attempts 7–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Lindholm – Montour18:19
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Schenn – Pettersson10:34
xG 0.03–0.51 (5%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson18:47
xG 0.30–1.32 (18%)attempts 12–35goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Donskoi – Suomela6:47
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier8:43
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Meier4:01
xG 0.28–0.02 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Labanc11:35
xG 0.61–0.43 (58%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon10:54
xG 0.68–0.04 (94%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson17:39
xG 0.70–0.18 (79%)attempts 26–11goals 0–1
- Burns – Ryan13:48
xG 0.79–0.33 (71%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).