Thu, Oct 4, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 218 | 08 | 115 | 12 | 443 |
| OTT | 310 | 010 | 05 | 00 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40CHIAlex DeBrincatUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:47OTTZack SmithAssists: Colin White, Thomas Chabot · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 10:30CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 12:06OTTMaxime LajoieAssists: Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P1 16:32OTTColin WhitePPAssists: Maxime Lajoie, Chris Tierney · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 12:18CHIBrent SeabrookAssists: Patrick Kane, David Kampf · Snap, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 0:38CHIPatrick KaneGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 16:23CHIChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:18CHIAlex DeBrincat: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 16:06CHILuke Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:20OTTColin White: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:21OTTMaxime Lajoie: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:12OTTChris Tierney: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Anisimov – Kampf12:03
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun12:35
xG 0.65–0.87 (43%)attempts 17–16goals 2–0
- Kruger – Johnson – Martinsen5:28
xG 0.05–0.29 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Kane – Saad – Schmaltz14:05
xG 0.33–0.95 (26%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Manning14:56
xG 0.78–0.43 (65%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Gustafsson – Rutta14:17
xG 0.67–0.65 (51%)attempts 20–14goals 0–0
- Keith – Jokiharju16:50
xG 0.63–1.03 (38%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – White9:22
xG 0.75–0.11 (87%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – McCormick4:31
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Paajarvi – Tierney5:15
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Boedker – Tierney – Formenton4:02
xG 0.06–0.27 (18%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci16:26
xG 1.35–0.67 (67%)attempts 18–20goals 0–2
- DeMelo – Lajoie13:20
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Wideman – Chabot16:45
xG 0.37–0.90 (29%)attempts 13–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).