Thu, Oct 4, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 29 | 39 | 07 | 525 |
| VGK | 18 | 09 | 18 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:37VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Jon Merrill, Marc-Andre Fleury · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:24PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Sanheim, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 18:43PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Robert Hagg · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 2:58PHIWayne SimmondsPPGWGAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 6:11PHIRobert HaggAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Mikhail Vorobyev · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P2 7:17PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Radko Gudas, Michael Raffl · Deflected, 0.09 xG5–1
- P3 8:28VGKPierre-Edouard BellemareSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:08PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:33VGKErik Haula: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:37VGKMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:37PHIAndrew MacDonald: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:37VGKMax Pacioretty: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:33PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 2:16PHIAndrew MacDonald: Interference2 min
- P3 5:12VGKErik Haula: Holding2 min
- P3 7:25VGKWilliam Karlsson: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLehtera – Laughton – Raffl9:24
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Vorobyev8:42
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Voracek – Lindblom – Patrick10:02
xG 0.01–0.19 (7%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny11:37
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Sanheim12:17
xG 0.58–0.18 (76%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov15:33
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hagg14:04
xG 0.53–0.92 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Carrier – Bellemare9:02
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:10
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Carpenter – Nosek7:49
xG 0.38–0.46 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Haula12:39
xG 0.32–0.71 (31%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Theodore2:08
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- McNabb – Miller14:55
xG 0.47–0.22 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore11:29
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).