Fri, Oct 5, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
San Jose Sharks 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 29 | 012 | 010 | 12 | 333 |
| LAK | 18 | 18 | 05 | 00 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42SJSTimo MeierAssists: Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:48SJSEvander KaneAssists: Antti Suomela, Joonas Donskoi · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 17:15LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Alex Iafallo, Derek Forbort · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 0:37LAKTyler ToffoliAssists: Tanner Pearson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- OT 2:54SJSKevin LabancGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:05SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:49SJSAntti Suomela: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:33LAKTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:38SJSJoe Pavelski: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00SJSBarclay Goodrow: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 5:38LAKJeff Carter: Interference2 min
- P3 12:07SJSMarcus Sorensen: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:39LAKAdrian Kempe: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Donskoi – Suomela10:39
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier9:25
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Sorensen – Goodrow – Karlsson6:11
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Couture – Hertl – Labanc9:23
xG 0.19–0.76 (20%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Karlsson18:21
xG 1.14–0.88 (56%)attempts 25–11goals 1–1
- Braun – Dillon8:44
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Burns – Braun4:57
xG 0.27–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Amadio – Wagner3:43
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Lewis – Clifford – Kempe3:03
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Kopitar – Iafallo10:22
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Lewis – Kempe – Wagner2:15
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort15:17
xG 1.13–0.73 (61%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Phaneuf – Fantenberg6:29
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Forbort – Fantenberg2:48
xG 0.17–0.20 (47%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).