Sat, Oct 6, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Rangers 1, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 010 | 120 | 144 |
| BUF | 17 | 18 | 114 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:15BUFConor ShearyPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:42BUFConor ShearyPPGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.23 xG0–2
- P3 15:21NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Adam McQuaid, Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 19:58BUFJack EichelENUnassisted · Snap, 0.74 xG1–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:17BUFKyle Okposo: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 10:57BUFEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:57NYRJimmy Vesey: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:53NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:35BUFNathan Beaulieu: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:35NYRCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:43BUFJason Pominville: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 0:00NYRVinni Lettieri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:10NYRAdam McQuaid: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:41NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:19BUFJack Eichel: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:38BUFEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:38NYRMats Zuccarello: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Vesey – Chytil3:00
xG 0.22–0.12 (64%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Spooner – Fast – Howden3:30
xG 0.10–0.09 (51%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Spooner – Fast – Chytil5:51
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich7:32
xG 0.24–0.30 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Skjei13:15
xG 0.45–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Smith13:41
xG 0.82–0.81 (50%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Staal – Pionk9:57
xG 0.17–0.33 (33%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Berglund – Skinner7:18
xG 0.50–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Sheary – Reinhart – Eichel11:30
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Thompson – Mittelstadt5:23
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pominville – Elie – Rodrigues6:18
xG 0.09–0.33 (21%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Nelson10:20
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Scandella – Ristolainen12:14
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- McCabe – Dahlin14:59
xG 0.26–0.86 (23%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).