Sat, Oct 6, 2018·Scandinavium, GothenburgNeutral site
Edmonton Oilers 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 04 | 18 | 219 |
| NJD | 19 | 210 | 28 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Damon Severson · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:01EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:02NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Will Butcher, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 3:11NJDTravis ZajacGWGAssists: Miles Wood · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 5:27NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Miles Wood · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 11:32EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Milan Lucic, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 18:31NJDStefan NoesenENAssists: Sami Vatanen, Mirco Mueller · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:41NJDBen Lovejoy: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 10:34NJDStefan Noesen: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:14NJDKyle Palmieri: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:55EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:26EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P2 14:39NJDBrian Boyle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Lucic – Draisaitl – McDavid2:13
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Strome – Khaira – Puljujarvi8:15
xG 0.07–0.24 (22%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid15:01
xG 0.61–0.90 (40%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Lucic – Draisaitl – Yamamoto10:14
xG 0.03–0.47 (6%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom13:49
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bouchard2:26
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Russell – Bouchard7:53
xG 0.24–0.27 (48%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Noesen – Zacha12:00
xG 0.48–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Zajac – Wood – Quenneville9:56
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier13:45
xG 0.69–0.55 (56%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Boyle – Coleman – Dea6:08
xG 0.08–0.21 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher11:31
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Greene – Severson15:50
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 2–1
- Vatanen – Mueller16:26
xG 0.72–0.68 (51%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).