Sat, Oct 6, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Nashville Predators 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 212 | 26 | 05 | 423 |
| NYI | 17 | 215 | 07 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42NSHViktor ArvidssonAssists: Filip Forsberg, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 12:01NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Josh Bailey · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 16:56NSHMattias EkholmAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 2:46NYIValtteri FilppulaAssists: Tanner Fritz, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 13:30NSHCraig SmithAssists: Kyle Turris, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 16:42NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P2 19:31NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:19NSHCraig Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 3:08NSHViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:36NSHZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:21NYILeo Komarov: Holding2 min
- P3 4:01NSHKyle Turris: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:16NSHFilip Forsberg: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:16NYIJordan Eberle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Jarnkrok8:42
xG 0.39–0.13 (74%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Bonino – Sissons – Hartman7:26
xG 0.21–0.11 (64%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:31
xG 0.59–0.67 (47%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Rinaldo – Gaudreau – Fiala5:40
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm16:32
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 6–13goals 2–1
- Weber – Bitetto9:35
xG 0.41–0.19 (69%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis16:48
xG 0.40–0.60 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:42
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier10:24
xG 0.61–0.37 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Filppula – Komarov – Fritz10:44
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson9:25
xG 0.09–0.68 (11%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Boychuk – Sbisa10:24
xG 0.23–0.22 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 1–2
- Pelech – Pulock15:31
xG 0.34–0.38 (48%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Hickey – Leddy12:15
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).