Sat, Oct 6, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Winnipeg Jets 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 19 | 015 | 133 |
| DAL | 216 | 115 | 24 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:23DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Tyler Seguin, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 11:18DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 2:10WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Josh Morrissey, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 7:26DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.49 xG1–3
- P3 7:38DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 12:41DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alexander Radulov · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 4:49WPGBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:43WPGBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 17:24WPGTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P1 19:58WPGDustin Byfuglien: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:58DALMarc Methot: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00DALBrett Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:58WPGDustin Byfuglien: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 8:24DALMarc Methot: Interference2 min
- P3 0:49DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:32WPGTyler Myers: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:03DALJason Dickinson: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Tanev6:45
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine6:17
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Ehlers – Roslovic – Vesalainen2:43
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Laine3:25
xG 0.16–0.17 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Morrow10:10
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 18–8goals 0–1
- Byfuglien – Chiarot13:05
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Myers2:38
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Faksa – Shore9:44
xG 1.09–0.39 (74%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:06
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Spezza – Comeau – Janmark8:56
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Dickinson – Hintz5:55
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell14:48
xG 1.05–0.60 (64%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Polak – Carrick10:44
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Lindell – Carrick2:04
xG 0.02–0.00 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).