Sat, Oct 6, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 5, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 211 | 19 | 12 | 530 |
| STL | 29 | 08 | 213 | 00 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:42STLColton ParaykoPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:22STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P1 18:30CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 1:33CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 10:25CHIMarcus KrugerAssists: Patrick Kane, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.34 xG3–2
- P3 3:58STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 4:20STLChris ButlerAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 6:59CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 2:20CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:39STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:34CHIPatrick Kane: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:47STLRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:07CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:33CHILuke Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:41STLDavid Perron: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 10:55CHIAndreas Martinsen: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:19CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:37STLRyan O'Reilly: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:47CHIMarcus Kruger: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – DeBrincat – Kahun9:37
xG 0.52–0.19 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Kane – Saad – Schmaltz11:19
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Kruger – Johnson – Martinsen5:30
xG 0.12–0.20 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Anisimov – Kampf8:43
xG 0.42–0.61 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Jokiharju14:14
xG 0.81–0.32 (72%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Rutta14:41
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Seabrook – Manning10:10
xG 0.51–0.85 (37%)attempts 5–12goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – O'Reilly – Tarasenko6:39
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Schenn – Schwartz – Kyrou4:36
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Blais – Thomas4:21
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Maroon – O'Reilly – Kyrou2:50
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Parayko10:05
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Parayko2:58
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Dunn3:15
xG 0.16–0.15 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).