Sat, Oct 6, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Minnesota Wild 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 016 | 113 | 04 | 1 | 242 |
| MIN | 15 | 08 | 014 | 03 | 0 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23MINMathew DumbaAssists: Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P3 18:29VGKMax PaciorettyAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. MIN Zach Parise stopped
- 2. VGK William Karlsson stopped
- 3. MIN Jason Zucker stopped
- 4. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 5. MIN Mikko Koivu stopped
- 6. VGK Erik Haula scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:34VGKPaul Stastny: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:40MINNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:26MINJordan Greenway: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:44MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:44VGKRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:35VGKJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:51MINZach Parise: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Haula13:22
xG 0.99–0.36 (74%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Carpenter – Nosek6:51
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault16:36
xG 0.52–0.36 (60%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare8:35
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore19:06
xG 1.01–0.35 (74%)attempts 27–13goals 0–0
- McNabb – Miller16:55
xG 0.95–0.49 (66%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill13:38
xG 0.34–0.45 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Fehr – Foligno7:05
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Coyle – Greenway – Eriksson Ek9:34
xG 0.14–0.18 (44%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Koivu – Parise – Niederreiter15:12
xG 0.25–0.54 (32%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund14:44
xG 0.65–1.19 (35%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Pateryn – Seeler12:34
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin17:57
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba20:38
xG 0.75–1.39 (35%)attempts 16–30goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).