Sat, Oct 6, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 113 | 012 | 237 |
| COL | 214 | 114 | 27 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:35COLColin WilsonAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 7:30PHISean CouturierAssists: Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 12:58COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 2:00PHIMikhail VorobyevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 7:18COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 16:21COLColin WilsonPPAssists: Carl Soderberg, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 18:45COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:12COLMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:16COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:29PHIScott Laughton: Holding2 min
- P2 5:49PHIJakub Voracek: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:49COLJ.T. Compher: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:26PHIRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:42COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:42PHITravis Konecny: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:20COLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P3 12:54PHITravis Konecny: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 14:38PHIChristian Folin: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny7:09
xG 0.57–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Simmonds – Vorobyev3:03
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier4:12
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Laughton – Raffl5:51
xG 0.04–0.21 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFolin – Sanheim11:18
xG 0.68–0.40 (63%)attempts 15–12goals 2–1
- MacDonald – Hagg9:23
xG 0.30–0.23 (56%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Hagg – Provorov2:05
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Kerfoot – Jost7:55
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Calvert – Compher – Dries4:37
xG 0.33–0.06 (84%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:33
xG 0.18–0.18 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Nieto5:04
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard14:10
xG 0.96–0.31 (76%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
- Cole – Barrie11:45
xG 0.51–0.28 (65%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Barberio – Zadorov9:01
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).