Sat, Oct 6, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 4, Calgary Flames 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 25 | 27 | 08 | 420 |
| CGY | 29 | 117 | 411 | 737 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12CGYElias LindholmAssists: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:15VANElias PetterssonAssists: Nikolay Goldobin, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 16:38VANBrandon SutterSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 17:08CGYMark GiordanoAssists: TJ Brodie, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 2:52VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Bo Horvat · Slap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 9:31CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- P2 16:58VANBo HorvatPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Alexander Edler · Tip-in, 0.24 xG4–3
- P3 9:27CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.25 xG4–4
- P3 14:28CGYElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 18:22CGYAustin CzarnikENAssists: Mark Giordano, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.75 xG4–6
- P3 19:24CGYMichael FrolikENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:05VANNikolay Goldobin: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:10CGYDalton Prout: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:39VANJake Virtanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 15:20CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:37CGYMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:44VANElias Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:36CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:12VANSven Baertschi: Holding2 min
- P3 6:50CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:11VANBrock Boeser: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:45VANNikolay Goldobin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 19:04CGYNoah Hanifin: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Sutter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Goldobin – Pettersson6:16
xG 0.82–0.09 (90%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser10:58
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Beagle – Granlund – Leipsic5:27
xG 0.01–0.11 (11%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sutter – Motte – Virtanen7:01
xG 0.00–0.77 (0%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Tanev2:59
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Pouliot7:31
xG 0.31–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudbranson4:34
xG 0.31–0.40 (44%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Czarnik – Tkachuk8:31
xG 0.83–0.08 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:31
xG 0.62–0.40 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Frolik – Jankowski – Bennett3:50
xG 0.02–0.03 (34%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Ryan – Dube9:51
xG 0.22–0.74 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Välimäki8:40
xG 0.90–0.18 (83%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Hanifin13:21
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie14:55
xG 0.27–0.27 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).