Sun, Oct 7, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Toronto Maple Leafs 7, Chicago Blackhawks 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 28 | 213 | 212 | 11 | 734 |
| CHI | 214 | 17 | 310 | 00 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:00CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Dominik Kahun, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 12:02CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Dominik Kahun, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 14:09TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P1 14:43TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 3:56TORJohn TavaresAssists: Zach Hyman, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 5:37CHIJohn HaydenAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–3
- P2 7:37TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.14 xG4–3
- P3 2:20CHIBrandon ManningAssists: Brent Seabrook, Chris Kunitz · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 9:29TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
- P3 18:36CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–5
- P3 18:58TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Patrick Marleau, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–5
- P3 19:31CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Nick Schmaltz · Slap, 0.03 xG6–6
- OT 0:19TORMorgan RiellyGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.12 xG7–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:10TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P2 7:05CHIPatrick Kane: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:10TORAndreas Johnsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:37CHIBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner14:36
xG 0.98–0.28 (78%)attempts 20–15goals 2–0
- Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews10:35
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 17–14goals 3–1
- Kadri – Leivo – Brown8:27
xG 0.26–0.24 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Ennis – Johnsson – Lindholm3:41
xG 0.11–0.15 (42%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly15:49
xG 1.19–0.64 (65%)attempts 22–13goals 3–1
- Marincin – Dermott11:32
xG 0.72–0.23 (75%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Zaitsev16:53
xG 0.33–0.75 (31%)attempts 11–23goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Kruger – Johnson – Hayden8:02
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Toews – DeBrincat – Kahun12:24
xG 0.69–0.70 (50%)attempts 18–15goals 2–3
- Kunitz – Anisimov – Kampf10:03
xG 0.26–0.43 (38%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Kane – Saad – Schmaltz13:39
xG 0.43–0.73 (37%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Jokiharju14:18
xG 0.89–0.55 (62%)attempts 22–9goals 3–2
- Manning – Jokiharju2:39
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Rutta14:54
xG 0.52–0.74 (41%)attempts 14–18goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).