Sun, Oct 7, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Detroit Red Wings 2, Los Angeles Kings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 114 | 112 | 238 |
| LAK | 010 | 26 | 29 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:21LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk, Jake Muzzin · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:45DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Dennis Cholowski · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 16:14LAKPaul LaDueAssists: Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 9:15LAKAlex IafalloGWGAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 16:00DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Dennis Cholowski · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:39LAKAlex IafalloENAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:33DETTyler Bertuzzi: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 12:10LAKAlec Martinez: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:16LAKJake Muzzin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 6:16DETNick Jensen: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:22LAKAlex Iafallo: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:40DETFilip Hronek: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:47LAKJeff Carter: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:05LAKDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:05DETTyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:05DETFilip Hronek: Misconduct10 min
- P3 5:05DETFilip Hronek: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:05LAKPaul LaDue: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:05LAKPaul LaDue: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:18LAKAustin Wagner: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Athanasiou
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Mantha – Larkin13:35
xG 1.58–0.44 (78%)attempts 26–8goals 0–2
- Helm – Glendening – Ehn5:41
xG 0.24–0.29 (45%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – Glendening2:00
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen9:37
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Cholowski4:32
xG 0.56–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser3:30
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- DeKeyser – Hronek7:13
xG 0.23–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Wagner3:42
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Lewis – Pearson – Kempe3:42
xG 0.40–0.14 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Lewis – Kempe – Wagner5:09
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Thompson – Amadio – Anderson-Dolan4:29
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Doughty5:26
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – LaDue5:22
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez14:36
xG 0.47–0.74 (39%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).