Mon, Oct 8, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 3, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 09 | 212 | 110 | 331 |
| BOS | 215 | 16 | 39 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 17:12BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 2:21OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Mark Stone, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 7:08BOSChris WagnerAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Sean Kuraly · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 12:13OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 4:38BOSPatrice BergeronGWGAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 16:31BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–5
- P3 17:03OTTBobby RyanAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.03 xG3–5
- P3 18:22BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:21BOSDanton Heinen: Interference2 min
- P1 11:21OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:31OTTColin White: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:18BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:18OTTChris Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:42BOSJohn Moore: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:26BOSPatrice Bergeron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Stone – Tkachuk8:29
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Boedker – Duchene – Dzingel6:02
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Ryan – Tierney – White3:28
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Duchene – Dzingel – Tkachuk2:33
xG 0.19–0.14 (59%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot11:18
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Lajoie2:25
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:17
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 12–8goals 3–1
- Backes – Heinen – Bjork9:24
xG 0.25–0.24 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari10:58
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Krejci – Donato – DeBrusk9:30
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 8–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChara – McAvoy13:26
xG 0.89–0.50 (64%)attempts 14–14goals 3–2
- Moore – Carlo12:16
xG 0.28–0.41 (41%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk15:07
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).