Mon, Oct 8, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
Detroit Red Wings 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 18 | 18 | 05 | 00 | 0 | 221 |
| ANA | 06 | 18 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:06DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 10:57ANAHampus LindholmAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Kiefer Sherwood · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:56DETDarren HelmAssists: Danny DeKeyser, Jimmy Howard · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 8:29ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Adam Henrique, Maxime Comtois · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
- 2. DET Thomas Vanek stopped
- 3. ANA Troy Terry scored
- 4. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 5. ANA Sam Steel stopped
- 6. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:47DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P1 2:20ANAMaxime Comtois: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:02DETLibor Sulak: Delaying game2 min
- P2 2:32ANACam Fowler: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:43DETLuke Glendening: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ehn won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen8:19
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Helm – Glendening – Ehn10:18
xG 0.34–0.33 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Nyquist – Mantha – Larkin13:19
xG 0.58–0.64 (48%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Vanek – Abdelkader – Athanasiou7:54
xG 0.52–0.60 (47%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek15:28
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Jensen – Hicketts9:25
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Jensen – DeKeyser3:45
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Silfverberg – Comtois3:06
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Terry – Lundeström2:34
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Sherwood – Lundeström8:33
xG 0.54–0.47 (53%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Street – Gibbons – Rowney12:02
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson21:18
xG 1.34–0.64 (68%)attempts 25–20goals 1–0
- Schenn – Pettersson9:03
xG 0.08–0.36 (17%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Montour17:42
xG 0.65–1.03 (39%)attempts 17–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).