Tue, Oct 9, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Colorado Avalanche 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 09 | 29 | 09 | 227 |
| CBJ | 217 | 08 | 310 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:49CBJNick FolignoAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Anthony Duclair · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 10:32CBJPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.67 xG0–2
- P2 3:27COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Erik Johnson · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:30COLCarl SoderbergPPAssists: Samuel Girard, Alexander Kerfoot · Tip-in, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 5:14CBJArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Ryan Murray · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 11:32CBJNick FolignoAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 18:00CBJJosh AndersonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:49CBJAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:07COLSheldon Dries: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:55COLJ.T. Compher: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:00COLAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:45CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P2 9:12CBJNick Foligno: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:55COLAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:56CBJBoone Jenner: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:26COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:31COLSheldon Dries: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost7:23
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Calvert – Compher – Dries3:17
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Nieto3:27
xG 0.02–0.18 (10%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:19
xG 0.32–1.27 (20%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard12:13
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Barberio – Barrie2:38
xG 0.04–0.11 (25%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie8:50
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Wennberg – Panarin2:07
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois8:49
xG 0.55–0.13 (81%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Sedlak – Bjorkstrand – Milano4:37
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Duclair – Wennberg6:14
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara13:49
xG 1.18–0.32 (79%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Savard – Nutivaara2:50
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Clendening – Harrington7:40
xG 0.26–0.09 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).