Tue, Oct 9, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 3, Nashville Predators 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 19 | 110 | 327 |
| NSH | 07 | 021 | 015 | 043 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:11CGYElias LindholmPPGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 5:22CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P3 0:33CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie · Deflected, 0.04 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:58NSHP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:13NSHMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:42NSHKevin Fiala: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:16CGYMichael Stone: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:16CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:21NSHKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:47CGYElias Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Czarnik – Tkachuk8:56
xG 0.49–0.25 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Frolik – Peluso – Ryan3:02
xG 0.17–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Bennett – Dube7:43
xG 0.16–0.60 (22%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan15:01
xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie13:56
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Andersson – Välimäki10:52
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Stone – Hanifin15:29
xG 0.38–0.89 (30%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Fiala3:25
xG 0.44–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala9:21
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson5:11
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Hartman8:09
xG 0.31–0.24 (57%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm15:43
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Weber – Bitetto10:18
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis16:27
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).