Thu, Oct 11, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Edmonton Oilers 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 111 | 06 | 09 | 126 |
| BOS | 315 | 07 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ty Rattie, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 9:20BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 14:37BOSBrad MarchandPPGWGAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P1 15:13BOSJoakim NordstromAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 19:25BOSPatrice BergeronENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:12EDMAdam Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 13:54EDMJujhar Khaira: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:45BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P1 17:19EDMOscar Klefbom: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:33EDMJujhar Khaira: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:33BOSKevan Miller: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:27EDMDrake Caggiula: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:27BOSDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:24BOSDanton Heinen: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:07EDMJesse Puljujarvi: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Lucic – Draisaitl – Yamamoto10:10
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Strome – Puljujarvi – Caggiula7:35
xG 0.08–0.25 (24%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Kassian – Rieder – Khaira6:49
xG 0.03–0.25 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:46
xG 0.31–0.54 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard3:11
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse2:26
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Benning – Nurse9:34
xG 0.17–0.18 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:28
xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Krejci – Nordstrom – DeBrusk11:20
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari8:15
xG 0.39–0.42 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Backes – Heinen – Bjork7:01
xG 0.02–0.44 (4%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk10:51
xG 0.45–0.17 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Miller2:30
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy15:45
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).