Thu, Oct 11, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 217 | 15 | 210 | 532 |
| FLA | 111 | 322 | 08 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:29CBJZach WerenskiPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson · Slap, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 17:20CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 19:49FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 6:29FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 8:57FLATroy BrouwerAssists: Mark Pysyk · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 12:16CBJAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P2 19:51FLANick BjugstadAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 1:15CBJBoone JennerAssists: Scott Harrington, Riley Nash · Slap, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 17:14CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Markus Nutivaara, Artemi Panarin · Backhand, 0.18 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:58CBJAlexander Wennberg: Holding2 min
- P1 11:47FLAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:17FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:14CBJJosh Anderson: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:40FLAAlexander Petrovic: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois12:08
xG 1.10–0.48 (70%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Duclair – Panarin – Dubois2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Sedlak – Bjorkstrand – Milano5:10
xG 0.10–0.20 (33%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Jenner – Anderson13:47
xG 0.29–1.03 (22%)attempts 11–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurray – Nutivaara17:01
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Savard – Werenski20:13
xG 0.79–0.78 (50%)attempts 10–20goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray2:09
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Sceviour – Lammikko7:58
xG 0.91–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Huberdeau13:09
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- McCann – Vatrano – Malgin10:54
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov12:21
xG 0.62–0.83 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad18:08
xG 1.30–0.34 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 2–2
- Petrovic – MacDonald11:51
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson17:34
xG 1.06–0.99 (52%)attempts 15–20goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).