Thu, Oct 11, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Los Angeles Kings 3, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 29 | 07 | 113 | 329 |
| MTL | 014 | 012 | 014 | 040 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:56LAKAdrian KempeGWGAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:31LAKMichael AmadioAssists: Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 9:04LAKJeff CarterAssists: Jake Muzzin, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.08 xG3–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:45LAKAdrian Kempe: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:46MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:42MTLJordie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:35LAKJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P2 15:40LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:50LAKTanner Pearson: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:02MTLAndrew Shaw: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:02MTLCharles Hudon: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Kopitar – Iafallo11:40
xG 0.48–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Amadio – Anderson-Dolan8:21
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Kovalchuk – Kopitar – Pearson3:14
xG 0.17–0.08 (67%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe6:57
xG 0.35–0.29 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez12:42
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 12–18goals 3–0
- Phaneuf – LaDue3:58
xG 0.29–0.06 (84%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort5:37
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Armia – Kotkaniemi4:41
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Peca – Shaw – Hudon4:40
xG 0.22–0.13 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Shaw – Danault – Hudon2:07
xG 0.08–0.05 (61%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault7:59
xG 0.04–0.06 (41%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Ouellet12:52
xG 0.83–0.56 (60%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Petry – Mete11:40
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Reilly – Juulsen16:29
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).