Thu, Oct 11, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Calgary Flames 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 18 | 011 | 215 | 334 |
| STL | 314 | 210 | 08 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:32CGYJames NealAssists: Sam Bennett, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:44STLAlexander SteenAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Jay Bouwmeester · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 9:48STLDavid PerronAssists: Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 17:22STLJoel EdmundsonAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 4:05STLDavid PerronPPGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 19:24STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 8:17CGYDerek RyanAssists: Austin Czarnik, Matthew Tkachuk · Slap, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 11:04CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Mark Giordano, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:14CGYJuuso Välimäki: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:52STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:38CGYSam Bennett: Elbowing2 min
- P1 18:38STLRyan O'Reilly: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:38STLRobert Bortuzzo: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 3:05CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:18CGYMark Giordano: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 12:35STLJakub Jerabek: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:00STLBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:35CGYMichael Frolik: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:12CGYMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00STLJoel Edmundson: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCzarnik – Ryan – Tkachuk5:54
xG 0.56–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Backlund – Lindholm – Bennett5:40
xG 0.53–0.26 (67%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Neal – Bennett – Dube3:07
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Frolik – Peluso – Ryan2:20
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie12:57
xG 0.81–0.25 (77%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Andersson – Välimäki10:25
xG 0.30–0.49 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–2
- Stone – Hanifin11:43
xG 0.52–1.17 (31%)attempts 10–14goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – O'Reilly – Tarasenko8:51
xG 0.94–0.40 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–3
- Barbashev – Blais – Thomas7:12
xG 0.25–0.29 (46%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Steen – Bozak – Kyrou6:09
xG 0.09–0.31 (23%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Perron – Schenn – Schwartz10:02
xG 0.42–0.72 (37%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Edmundson9:12
xG 0.63–0.09 (88%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Parayko14:25
xG 0.98–0.83 (54%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Edmundson2:01
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).