Thu, Oct 11, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Winnipeg Jets 0, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 012 | 02 | 015 | 029 |
| NSH | 011 | 113 | 26 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:02NSHRyan HartmanGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 7:58NSHRoman JosiAssists: Ryan Ellis, Ryan Hartman · Slap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P3 14:42NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.16 xG0–3
Penalties (19)
- P1 12:24WPGBen Chiarot: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:13WPGPatrik Laine: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 8:31WPGBlake Wheeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:07WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Interference2 min
- P2 15:41WPGJacob Trouba: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:41WPGBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:41WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:41NSHMattias Ekholm: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:41NSHColton Sissons: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:23WPGDustin Byfuglien: Interference2 min
- P2 17:48WPGJacob Trouba: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:48WPGTyler Myers: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00NSHZac Rinaldo: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:47NSHKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:45WPGJacob Trouba: Interference2 min
- P3 18:58WPGPatrik Laine: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:58NSHDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:58WPGBen Chiarot: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00WPGMark Scheifele: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Copp – Tanev5:31
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine10:11
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor11:15
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Perreault – Roslovic – Vesalainen3:23
xG 0.04–0.23 (16%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Morrow7:47
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot12:26
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 11–7goals 0–2
- Trouba – Morrissey13:16
xG 0.30–1.20 (20%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRinaldo – Salomaki – Sissons9:23
xG 1.18–0.22 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Hartman4:48
xG 0.33–0.24 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 2–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:10
xG 0.31–0.30 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala7:17
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm13:18
xG 1.23–0.45 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Josi – Ellis11:53
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Weber – Josi2:11
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).