Sat, Oct 13, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Los Angeles Kings 1, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 05 | 120 | 012 | 137 |
| OTT | 38 | 16 | 18 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:29OTTChris TierneyAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Thomas Chabot · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 11:50OTTChris WidemanGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Mikkel Boedker · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 16:19OTTMark StonePPAssists: Matt Duchene, Thomas Chabot · Backhand, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 10:01OTTColin WhiteAssists: Maxime Lajoie, Christian Jaros · Snap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 15:53LAKTrevor LewisAssists: Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 11:03OTTChris WidemanAssists: Matt Duchene, Brady Tkachuk · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:01OTTMark Stone: Holding2 min
- P1 9:17OTTDylan DeMelo: Holding2 min
- P1 14:31LAKDerek Forbort: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:27OTTThomas Chabot: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:26OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:40OTTColin White: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Lewis – Clifford6:16
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Pearson – Kempe2:44
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Carter – Amadio – Anderson-Dolan11:16
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Kovalchuk – Pearson – Kempe7:10
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Martinez8:31
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Doughty – Forbort6:09
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Martinez5:50
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – Tierney – Tkachuk2:17
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Carey – Paajarvi2:59
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Ryan – Paajarvi – Tierney5:52
xG 0.03–0.01 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Stone – Tkachuk7:33
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot14:09
xG 0.58–0.24 (70%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Wideman – Chabot2:28
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Wideman – Lajoie2:32
xG 0.00–0.03 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).