Sat, Oct 13, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 2, Boston Bruins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 012 | 08 | 214 | 234 |
| BOS | 18 | 315 | 416 | 839 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:09BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brandon Carlo, Chris Wagner · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 4:44BOSCharlie McAvoyAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 11:27BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: David Krejci · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–3
- P2 16:20BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.08 xG0–4
- P3 0:21DETFilip HronekPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 2:05BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Snap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 8:23DETDylan LarkinSHAssists: Frans Nielsen, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 10:12BOSAnders BjorkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–6
- P3 15:15BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Brandon Carlo, David Krejci · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–7
- P3 19:58BOSSean KuralyAssists: Kevan Miller, Anders Bjork · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–8
Penalties (14)
- P1 19:44DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:44DETDylan Larkin: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:44BOSNoel Acciari: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:00DETChristoffer Ehn: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:17BOSJake DeBrusk: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:00BOSBrad Marchand: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 6:24DETAnthony Mantha: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:36BOSJohn Moore: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:57BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:57DETAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:35BOSChris Wagner: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:35DETNick Jensen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 19:35BOSChris Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:35DETNick Jensen: Illegal check to head2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Ehn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Vanek – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi5:42
xG 0.29–0.25 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Rasmussen6:40
xG 0.07–0.09 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Mantha – Larkin7:33
xG 0.18–0.22 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–2
- Helm – Glendening – Ehn5:57
xG 0.01–0.17 (8%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Sulak6:25
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Kronwall – Jensen6:50
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Jensen – Sulak4:03
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Nordstrom – DeBrusk9:44
xG 0.60–0.12 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari8:39
xG 0.63–0.19 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:28
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Backes – Donato – Bjork10:50
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk15:18
xG 1.09–0.22 (83%)attempts 22–11goals 3–0
- Moore – Carlo13:46
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Chara – McAvoy14:15
xG 0.47–0.65 (42%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).