Sat, Oct 13, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Montréal Canadiens 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 27 | 14 | 014 | 03 | 0 | 328 |
| MTL | 08 | 319 | 011 | 02 | 2 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:13PITDominik SimonAssists: Daniel Sprong, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 15:16PITKris LetangAssists: Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 0:11MTLTomas TatarAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 7:38MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jeff Petry, Tomas Tatar · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 8:51MTLTomas TatarPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 11:14PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MTL Paul Byron scored
- 2. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 3. MTL Jonathan Drouin scored
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
Penalties (8)
- P2 1:10PITBrian Dumoulin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:29PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:19MTLJordie Benn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:28PITDominik Simon: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:40PITCarl Hagelin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:00MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 11:01PITEvgeni Malkin: Holding2 min
- OT 0:47PITJake Guentzel: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin11:23
xG 0.37–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Crosby – Brassard – Guentzel15:13
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Hornqvist – Sheahan – Rust8:28
xG 0.21–0.23 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Cullen – Sprong – Simon4:40
xG 0.02–0.22 (10%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Schultz2:12
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Johnson – Riikola4:32
xG 0.38–0.22 (63%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin17:26
xG 0.49–0.50 (49%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault13:24
xG 0.60–0.25 (71%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Byron – Armia – Kotkaniemi6:46
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Shaw – Hudon3:11
xG 0.22–0.12 (65%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Shaw – Hudon – Kotkaniemi2:21
xG 0.07–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Ouellet13:55
xG 0.70–0.26 (73%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- Petry – Mete11:40
xG 0.39–0.26 (60%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Reilly – Juulsen16:24
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).