Sat, Oct 13, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Vancouver Canucks 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 09 | 212 | 19 | 330 |
| FLA | 011 | 28 | 07 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:31FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Denis Malgin · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 14:48VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Sven Baertschi, Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 17:20FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Keith Yandle, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 18:15VANAntoine RousselUnassisted · Snap, 0.33 xG2–2
- P3 6:11VANBo HorvatGWGAssists: Sven Baertschi, Alexander Edler · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:29VANAntoine Roussel: Tripping2 min
- P1 4:57FLAVincent Trocheck: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:30VANAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P1 15:43FLAVincent Trocheck: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:04VANJake Virtanen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:31FLAMike Matheson: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:28FLATroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:13VANDerrick Pouliot: Interference2 min
- P2 18:15FLABogdan Kiselevich: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 10:02VANChris Tanev: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Goldobin – Pettersson6:17
xG 0.70–0.17 (81%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser8:30
xG 0.41–0.08 (83%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Sutter – Roussel – Virtanen4:05
xG 0.35–0.28 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Beagle – Granlund – Schaller8:42
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPouliot – Stecher10:54
xG 0.93–0.22 (81%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton12:53
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev13:57
xG 0.24–0.81 (23%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – McCann – Mamin8:46
xG 0.35–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Huberdeau – Malgin8:46
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Lammikko6:58
xG 0.04–0.46 (8%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov8:40
xG 0.39–1.07 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad14:51
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Kiselevich11:50
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Matheson11:44
xG 0.37–0.74 (33%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).