Sat, Oct 13, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Washington Capitals 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 25 | 214 | 428 |
| WSH | 110 | 19 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:18WSHChandler StephensonAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 3:30TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Ron Hainsey, Auston Matthews · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:39WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 18:53TORPar LindholmAssists: Jake Gardiner, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 6:28TORJosh LeivoPPGWGAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 18:21TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:40WSHJakub Vrana: Hooking2 min
- P1 5:56TORTravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P2 4:17TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:22WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:47WSHMichal Kempny: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:44TORNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kapanen – Matthews13:27
xG 1.02–0.37 (73%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
- Kadri – Brown – Lindholm9:13
xG 0.37–0.37 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Leivo – Johnsson – Gauthier5:32
xG 0.06–0.36 (14%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner13:10
xG 0.33–0.79 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly15:24
xG 1.28–0.60 (68%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Dermott – Ozhiganov12:23
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev14:53
xG 0.34–1.50 (18%)attempts 12–21goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOshie – Backstrom – Vrana12:41
xG 0.94–0.14 (87%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Smith-Pelly – Jaskin7:15
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky9:36
xG 0.25–0.25 (51%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Stephenson14:19
xG 0.90–1.11 (45%)attempts 10–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Djoos2:37
xG 0.44–0.08 (85%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Orpik – Djoos8:53
xG 0.50–0.34 (60%)attempts 10–11goals 0–2
- Carlson – Kempny13:46
xG 0.50–0.58 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).