Sat, Oct 13, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Islanders 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 04 | 212 | 06 | 222 |
| NSH | 316 | 06 | 27 | 529 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:25NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: Nick Bonino, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 16:37NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan Johansen, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 19:50NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Dan Hamhuis · Snap, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 6:14NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 12:02NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 4:32NSHKyle TurrisPPAssists: Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 19:00NSHFilip ForsbergENAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.42 xG2–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 17:18NSHFilip Forsberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:48NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:00NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Barzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Bailey – Barzal5:22
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson17:12
xG 0.72–0.60 (54%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Beauvillier7:12
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Filppula – Clutterbuck – Beauvillier3:56
xG 0.02–0.14 (15%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Pelech7:14
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy5:52
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Hickey – Pulock3:06
xG 0.11–0.06 (67%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Jarnkrok – Hartman11:32
xG 0.68–0.09 (88%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:52
xG 0.75–0.60 (56%)attempts 17–10goals 2–2
- Turris – Smith – Fiala9:33
xG 0.26–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Salomaki – Sissons10:20
xG 0.21–0.27 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber15:06
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
- Josi – Ellis17:41
xG 0.66–0.50 (57%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Subban – Ekholm18:37
xG 0.94–0.84 (53%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).