Sat, Oct 13, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 010 | 117 | 112 | 12 | 341 |
| COL | 217 | 06 | 03 | 00 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:11COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 2:40COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 10:52CGYSam BennettAssists: Mikael Backlund, Michael Stone · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–2
- P3 18:06CGYElias LindholmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- OT 0:46CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:04CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:14COLCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:23CGYMark Jankowski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:44COLIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:01COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
- P3 7:19CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:19COLNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:19CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:16COLCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Backlund – Bennett7:32
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Monahan – Tkachuk8:34
xG 0.49–0.08 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Czarnik – Dube3:45
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hathaway – Ryan5:28
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Välimäki10:47
xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:04
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson13:54
xG 0.21–0.44 (33%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:00
xG 0.74–0.56 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Calvert – Compher – Kamenev7:25
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost7:53
xG 0.34–0.22 (60%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Nieto7:41
xG 0.16–0.61 (21%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Cole3:37
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Nemeth2:48
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov9:41
xG 0.43–0.55 (44%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).