Sun, Oct 14, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
San Jose Sharks 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 016 | 213 | 010 | 239 |
| NJD | 09 | 19 | 218 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:51SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Brent Burns, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.40 xG1–0
- P2 7:06NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Taylor Hall, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 15:35SJSTimo MeierAssists: Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 0:37NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Andy Greene, Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 3:25NJDJean-Sebastien DeaGWGAssists: Mirco Mueller, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:14NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:47SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:14SJSBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:27SJSMelker Karlsson: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 6:11SJSTomas Hertl: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:56SJSAntti Suomela: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:13SJSJustin Braun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:52SJSErik Karlsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:44NJDStefan Noesen: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 18:10NJDMarcus Johansson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Sorensen – Suomela8:36
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Meier9:29
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Pavelski – Kane – Labanc8:04
xG 0.76–0.57 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Chartier6:21
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan8:00
xG 1.15–0.07 (95%)attempts 15–4goals 2–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson10:55
xG 0.65–0.37 (64%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun3:30
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier10:01
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Zajac – Wood – Quenneville7:11
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Coleman – Dea5:28
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Johansson – Noesen – Zacha5:12
xG 0.12–0.65 (15%)attempts 3–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Greene – Mueller2:02
xG 0.31–0.28 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Greene – Severson11:10
xG 0.41–0.53 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Vatanen – Mueller10:22
xG 0.39–0.84 (32%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).