Sun, Oct 14, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 3, St. Louis Blues 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 014 | 210 | 331 |
| STL | 010 | 211 | 010 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:21ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Maxime Comtois, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 11:49STLAlexander SteenAssists: Joel Edmundson, Vladimir Tarasenko · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 15:52STLTyler BozakPPAssists: Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 7:16ANABen StreetAssists: Josh Manson, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 14:44ANAAndrew CoglianoPPGWGAssists: Ryan Kesler, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:30ANASam Steel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:32ANAMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:11STLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
- P2 14:35ANARyan Kesler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:45STLJoel Edmundson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSteel – Sherwood – Lundeström11:54
xG 0.53–0.23 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Comtois5:32
xG 0.30–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Street – Gibbons – Terry5:19
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Comtois3:24
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson18:26
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Sustr – Pettersson9:08
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Montour15:15
xG 0.72–1.01 (42%)attempts 12–22goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – O'Reilly – Tarasenko12:04
xG 0.90–0.49 (65%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Kyrou8:46
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Barbashev – Kyrou – Thomas2:41
xG 0.02–0.17 (12%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Schenn – Blais10:21
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko15:18
xG 0.73–0.32 (69%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Schmaltz2:17
xG 0.03–0.02 (63%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Parayko2:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).