Mon, Oct 15, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 3, Montréal Canadiens 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 19 | 07 | 212 | 328 |
| MTL | 315 | 316 | 14 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:13MTLJonathan DrouinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 16:56MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Matthew Peca, Noah Juulsen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 17:24DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 19:51MTLTomas TatarAssists: Phillip Danault · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 3:52MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 4:35MTLCharles HudonAssists: Matthew Peca, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P2 15:59MTLJonathan DrouinPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Max Domi · Backhand, 0.21 xG1–6
- P3 7:03DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Luke Glendening, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–6
- P3 10:11DETThomas VanekPPAssists: Anthony Mantha · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG3–6
- P3 18:11MTLPaul ByronAssists: Joel Armia, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–7
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:13DETFilip Hronek: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P1 14:13DETThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:36MTLTomas Tatar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:02MTLJonathan Drouin: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:02DETTyler Bertuzzi: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:15DETMartin Frk: Holding2 min
- P2 11:45DETDennis Cholowski: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:01DETDylan Larkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 8:07MTLXavier Ouellet: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 8:07DETTyler Bertuzzi: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:19MTLVictor Mete: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:41DETFilip Hronek: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi7:28
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Helm – Mantha – Larkin10:34
xG 0.68–0.55 (55%)attempts 17–9goals 0–2
- Abdelkader – Frk – Ehn6:02
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Vanek – Nyquist – Glendening7:55
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Hronek14:54
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Jensen – Cholowski13:56
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 22–10goals 0–2
- Hicketts – Sulak10:27
xG 0.17–0.76 (18%)attempts 6–15goals 1–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – Drouin – Domi9:20
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:11
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Byron – Armia – Kotkaniemi10:12
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Plekanec – Peca – Hudon7:16
xG 0.36–0.58 (38%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Ouellet12:16
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Petry – Mete13:37
xG 0.49–0.63 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Reilly – Juulsen14:42
xG 0.53–0.98 (35%)attempts 10–25goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).