Mon, Oct 15, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Minnesota Wild 2, Nashville Predators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 111 | 011 | 231 |
| NSH | 111 | 210 | 17 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:01NSHCraig SmithPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 13:29MINMathew DumbaPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 3:51NSHMattias EkholmAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 12:02NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 15:03MINMikko KoivuAssists: Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 19:49NSHMiikka SalomakiENAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.77 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:09NSHViktor Arvidsson: Interference2 min
- P1 4:07MINJonas Brodin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:17NSHRyan Johansen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:38MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:50NSHRyan Ellis: Holding2 min
- P2 5:11NSHZac Rinaldo: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:11MINMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:09MINNick Seeler: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:43NSHMiikka Salomaki: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Granlund12:40
xG 0.45–0.19 (71%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Fehr – Coyle – Niederreiter5:22
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Coyle4:50
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Foligno – Brown4:37
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba18:27
xG 1.07–0.65 (62%)attempts 26–17goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Brodin15:12
xG 0.17–0.15 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Seeler12:18
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson12:32
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Turris – Smith – Fiala9:55
xG 0.29–0.36 (45%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Rinaldo – Salomaki – Sissons5:40
xG 0.11–0.19 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bonino – Jarnkrok – Hartman9:26
xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 3–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Weber10:37
xG 0.26–0.17 (60%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis17:33
xG 0.49–0.50 (50%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm16:37
xG 0.58–0.72 (45%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).