Tue, Oct 16, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Dallas Stars 0, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 010 | 07 | 024 |
| NJD | 112 | 211 | 011 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:42NJDKyle PalmieriPPGWGAssists: Will Butcher, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 2:03NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Damon Severson, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 16:19NJDJean-Sebastien DeaUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:41DALConnor Carrick: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:01DALJulius Honka: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:09NJDTaylor Hall: Delaying game2 min
- P1 7:09DALJamie Benn: Holding2 min
- P1 13:29NJDBen Lovejoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:28NJDTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:38DALMattias Janmark: Holding2 min
- P2 13:07DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:28NJDMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:28DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:05NJDKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:18DALJulius Honka: Interference2 min
- P3 17:43DALRoope Hintz: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin7:00
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Comeau – Janmark – Hintz8:32
xG 0.26–0.27 (49%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Shore7:54
xG 0.04–0.32 (11%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Smith9:40
xG 0.31–0.74 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carrick – Heiskanen11:42
xG 0.37–0.54 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Lindell12:45
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Polak – Honka8:11
xG 0.27–0.47 (37%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier11:03
xG 0.76–0.36 (68%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood8:09
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Boyle – Noesen – Dea4:59
xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johansson – Quenneville – Zacha7:04
xG 0.09–0.32 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher7:42
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Greene – Severson12:51
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Mueller15:12
xG 0.43–0.65 (40%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).