Tue, Oct 16, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Colorado Avalanche 2, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 07 | 215 | 010 | 01 | 1 | 233 |
| NYR | 119 | 112 | 08 | 04 | 2 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 8:13COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Tyson Jost, Tyson Barrie · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 10:53NYRKevin HayesAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Shattenkirk · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 19:47COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen scored
- 5. NYR Kevin Shattenkirk scored
- 6. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:23COLPatrik Nemeth: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:06NYRJesper Fast: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:40COLMatt Calvert: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:30NYRKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:50NYRFredrik Claesson: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:50COLMatt Calvert: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:45COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:31NYRFilip Chytil: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:26COLMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min
- OT 0:20COLNathan MacKinnon: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto8:50
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost11:31
xG 0.69–0.66 (51%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:19
xG 0.66–0.66 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Bourque – Kamenev – Dries4:24
xG 0.28–0.39 (41%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov3:05
xG 0.15–0.09 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Zadorov8:54
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Barrie14:13
xG 0.75–1.04 (42%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hayes – Chytil11:17
xG 0.84–0.24 (78%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Howden8:11
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- McLeod – Spooner – Lettieri4:29
xG 0.04–0.24 (13%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad11:53
xG 0.62–0.95 (40%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Claesson9:07
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei2:17
xG 0.13–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pionk16:21
xG 0.43–0.67 (39%)attempts 19–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).