Tue, Oct 16, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Florida Panthers 5, Philadelphia Flyers 6 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 112 | 28 | 26 | 00 | 1 | 526 |
| PHI | 05 | 511 | 07 | 03 | 2 | 626 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:58FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Denis Malgin, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 1:18PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Travis Sanheim, Radko Gudas · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:54PHIJordan WealAssists: Robert Hagg, Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 8:50PHIClaude GirouxUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 12:31FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Jared McCann, Mark Pysyk · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 15:29PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Scott Laughton, Christian Folin · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 17:03PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jordan Weal, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–5
- P2 17:31FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Vincent Trocheck · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 5:06FLAEvgenii DadonovAssists: Bogdan Kiselevich, Troy Brouwer · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–5
- P3 8:07FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.12 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jakub Voracek scored
- 2. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
- 5. PHI Jordan Weal scored
- 6. FLA Frank Vatrano stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:20PHITravis Konecny: Interference2 min
- P1 15:40FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P2 6:27PHIWayne Simmonds: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:23FLAAlexander Petrovic: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:23PHIRobert Hagg: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:23PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:23PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:23FLAAlexander Petrovic: Misconduct10 min
- OT 1:55FLAMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov15:47
xG 0.58–0.36 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- McCann – Vatrano – Malgin10:27
xG 0.19–0.09 (68%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Lammikko – Mamin6:38
xG 0.06–0.02 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Huberdeau12:41
xG 0.38–0.98 (28%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich12:58
xG 0.46–0.08 (85%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Yandle – Ekblad19:08
xG 0.58–0.39 (60%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Pysyk – Kiselevich2:13
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Lindblom – Konecny13:40
xG 0.63–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier16:41
xG 0.80–0.57 (58%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Laughton – Raffl4:30
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 2–1
- Weise – Laughton – Raffl3:32
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Folin14:36
xG 0.61–0.02 (96%)attempts 13–6goals 2–0
- Gudas – Sanheim12:04
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Gudas – Hagg2:28
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).