Wed, Oct 17, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 3, Washington Capitals 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 118 | 15 | 00 | 332 |
| WSH | 114 | 213 | 09 | 12 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 14:05WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 3:32WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Brett Connolly · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 12:42NYRJimmy VeseyPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 17:01WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 10:25NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Neal Pionk, Mika Zibanejad · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 2:18WSHMatt NiskanenGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:35WSHNic Dowd: Interference2 min
- P2 2:09NYRBrett Howden: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:39WSHJakub Vrana: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:37WSHDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:42NYRJesper Fast: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:32NYRBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P3 9:20WSHNathan Walker: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:43NYRKevin Hayes: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Fast – Zibanejad10:12
xG 1.20–0.22 (85%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hayes – Chytil5:37
xG 0.29–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Spooner – Lettieri – Chytil4:06
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hayes – Buchnevich4:05
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Smith12:54
xG 0.98–0.15 (87%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Claesson12:35
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pionk13:33
xG 0.65–0.65 (50%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom2:15
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky12:40
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Dowd – Smith-Pelly – Walker5:18
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Stephenson11:30
xG 0.25–0.64 (29%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Djoos11:28
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny14:43
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Orpik – Niskanen2:14
xG 0.06–0.24 (20%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).