Wed, Oct 17, 2018·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 011 | 012 | 112 | 135 |
| ANA | 111 | 19 | 25 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:54ANARyan KeslerPPAssists: Sam Steel, Rickard Rakell · Backhand, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 8:20ANARyan KeslerGWGAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 0:42ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Maxime Comtois · Tip-in, 0.19 xG0–3
- P3 19:25NYICasey CizikasAssists: Ross Johnston, Scott Mayfield · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 19:30ANAHampus LindholmENAssists: Ben Street · Wrist, 0.57 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 15:27ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:06NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 19:06ANAMaxime Comtois: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:35NYIBrock Nelson: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:15ANAAdam Henrique: Holding2 min
- P2 13:35NYIAndrew Ladd: Interference2 min
- P2 17:10ANAKiefer Sherwood: Holding2 min
- P3 8:33NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:33ANACam Fowler: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:28NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:21ANABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Cizikas – Johnston6:00
xG 0.29–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Filppula – Clutterbuck – Beauvillier7:28
xG 0.31–0.12 (72%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bailey – Barzal8:07
xG 0.45–0.36 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson10:21
xG 0.28–0.45 (39%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield12:40
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Leddy – Pulock14:02
xG 0.60–0.57 (52%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Sbisa9:02
xG 0.14–0.23 (37%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestRakell – Steel – Sherwood2:02
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Rakell4:11
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Sherwood4:04
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Terry – Steel – Lundeström2:59
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Pettersson9:42
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Fowler – Manson14:59
xG 0.76–0.82 (48%)attempts 17–17goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Montour15:02
xG 0.22–0.72 (23%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).