Thu, Oct 18, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 117 | 011 | 211 | 339 |
| TOR | 09 | 013 | 016 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42PITEvgeni MalkinPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P3 17:53PITEvgeni MalkinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–0
- P3 18:52PITKris LetangENAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–0
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:36TORFrederik Gauthier: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 8:21TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:44PITMatt Murray: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel11:14
xG 0.47–0.09 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin13:27
xG 1.05–1.00 (51%)attempts 24–22goals 0–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Sheahan9:53
xG 0.42–0.37 (53%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Brassard – Sprong – Simon4:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin18:03
xG 0.86–0.28 (75%)attempts 31–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Riikola15:06
xG 1.01–1.14 (47%)attempts 21–28goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Maatta13:25
xG 0.30–0.81 (27%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Brown – Lindholm12:37
xG 0.89–0.38 (70%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Tavares – Hyman – Marner13:24
xG 0.99–0.97 (51%)attempts 21–25goals 0–0
- Ennis – Leivo – Gauthier7:59
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews14:17
xG 0.04–0.62 (6%)attempts 8–22goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Ozhiganov12:25
xG 0.60–0.27 (69%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly15:14
xG 0.70–0.74 (49%)attempts 18–21goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev18:26
xG 1.00–1.05 (49%)attempts 24–25goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).