Thu, Oct 18, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Colorado Avalanche 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 012 | 210 | 312 | 534 |
| NJD | 16 | 19 | 115 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:42NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Travis Zajac, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.27 xG0–1
- P2 1:17COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Ian Cole · Snap, 0.35 xG1–1
- P2 7:08COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 15:42NJDTaylor HallAssists: Andy Greene, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 6:22NJDBrian BoylePPAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Taylor Hall · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 8:08COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Ian Cole, Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 16:38COLGabriel LandeskogGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 19:47COLMikko RantanenENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Erik Johnson · Backhand, 0.74 xG5–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:08NJDMiles Wood: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:07COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P1 14:30COLNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 14:30NJDPavel Zacha: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:04COLMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:02COLIan Cole: Interference2 min
- P1 19:37NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
- P1 19:56COLNathan MacKinnon: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:32NJDKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:09NJDSami Vatanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:22NJDDrew Stafford: Elbowing2 min
- P2 18:13NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:01NJDMarcus Johansson: Holding2 min
- P3 6:04COLColin Wilson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestSoderberg – Calvert – Nieto8:32
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Wilson – Kerfoot – Jost6:44
xG 0.14–0.10 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Bourque – Andrighetto – Kamenev6:23
xG 0.05–0.12 (27%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:32
xG 0.56–0.65 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov11:03
xG 0.51–0.10 (84%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Cole4:46
xG 0.28–0.12 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Girard9:07
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Stafford – Johansson – Zacha5:08
xG 0.04–0.07 (40%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boyle – Noesen – Dea4:56
xG 0.05–0.08 (36%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood5:23
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier9:43
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Severson9:21
xG 0.45–0.43 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Mueller2:26
xG 0.10–0.09 (53%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Mueller9:43
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).