Thu, Oct 18, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 012 | 17 | 110 | 00 | 229 |
| EDM | 05 | 110 | 16 | 11 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:17BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 13:24EDMKailer YamamotoAssists: Adam Larsson, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 7:33EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 11:26BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 0:37EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:51EDMAdam Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:10BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P2 6:18EDMKris Russell: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:31BOSCharlie McAvoy: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 12:31BOSJoakim Nordstrom: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:31BOSChris Wagner: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:31EDMMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:31EDMRyan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:37EDMTobias Rieder: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Heinen – DeBrusk11:05
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:33
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Nordstrom – Kuraly – Acciari6:52
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Backes – Wagner – Donato3:07
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – McAvoy4:02
xG 0.21–0.04 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk8:52
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo4:25
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – McDavid4:18
xG 0.25–0.15 (63%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Lucic – Strome – Yamamoto8:04
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Kassian – Khaira5:53
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Rattie – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid5:18
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Larsson4:28
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Larsson – Klefbom12:31
xG 0.59–0.40 (59%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Klefbom – Bouchard6:03
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).