Thu, Oct 18, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 7, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 110 | 214 | 48 | 732 |
| LAK | 19 | 015 | 111 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55NYICasey CizikasAssists: Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 14:56LAKTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Ilya Kovalchuk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 3:43NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 12:07NYIValtteri FilppulaGWGAssists: Leo Komarov, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 2:54LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Alex Iafallo, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 3:40NYIValtteri FilppulaSHAssists: Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 4:40NYIMatt MartinAssists: Casey Cizikas, Cal Clutterbuck · Snap, 0.10 xG5–2
- P3 9:20NYILeo KomarovAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Scott Mayfield · Tip-in, 0.20 xG6–2
- P3 11:34NYIAndrew LaddAssists: Scott Mayfield, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.20 xG7–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:18NYIMathew Barzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:48NYILeo Komarov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:12LAKAdrian Kempe: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:50LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:28LAKJonathan Quick: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:44NYIAndrew Ladd: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:18NYILeo Komarov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carter won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas8:47
xG 0.68–0.19 (78%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Ladd – Eberle – Barzal12:05
xG 0.46–0.65 (42%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Beauvillier7:13
xG 0.11–0.41 (22%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson11:25
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Mayfield15:11
xG 1.08–0.64 (63%)attempts 18–14goals 3–0
- Boychuk – Pelech14:53
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Leddy – Pulock15:06
xG 0.29–0.99 (22%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Kempe – Iafallo11:11
xG 1.01–0.13 (88%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Lewis – Amadio – Wagner7:19
xG 0.70–0.20 (77%)attempts 12–2goals 0–1
- Thompson – Lewis – Wagner2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Rempal12:08
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Martinez10:30
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Doughty – Forbort15:58
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Fantenberg6:06
xG 0.05–0.02 (67%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).