Thu, Oct 18, 2018·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Buffalo Sabres 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 17 | 09 | 125 |
| SJS | 210 | 09 | 320 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:35SJSJoonas DonskoiPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Evander Kane · Deflected, 0.28 xG0–1
- P1 4:02SJSLogan CouturePPGWGAssists: Brent Burns · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 1:35BUFJake McCabeAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 4:54SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Evander Kane, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 11:49SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–4
- P3 18:13SJSLogan CoutureENAssists: Tomas Hertl, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.74 xG1–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:45BUFKyle Okposo: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 5:54BUFMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:09SJSErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:21BUFJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- P1 15:30SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:52SJSKevin Labanc: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:02SJSMelker Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:29BUFKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:40SJSKevin Labanc: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:42BUFMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:51BUFJake McCabe: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00SJSJoakim Ryan: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kane won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Sheary – Reinhart – Eichel6:34
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Pominville – Sobotka – Girgensons2:53
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Girgensons – Rodrigues4:24
xG 0.05–0.15 (27%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Elie – Thompson4:24
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Beaulieu7:45
xG 0.24–0.22 (53%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- McCabe – Dahlin8:39
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Scandella – Ristolainen9:49
xG 0.24–1.24 (16%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Kane – Labanc7:40
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Meier8:18
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Chartier8:07
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Donskoi – Sorensen – Suomela9:08
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ryan10:25
xG 0.67–0.06 (92%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson9:45
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Dillon2:00
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).