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Ice Lab

Fri, Oct 19, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington

Florida Panthers 6, Washington Capitals 5 (SO)

Away

Florida Panthers

6

Final

Shootout

Home

Washington Capitals

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.

WSH winsFLA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
FLA41116010033630
WSH1531618022531

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 10:49FLAVincent TrocheckAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
  2. P1 15:26WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Lars Eller, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P1 15:58FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
  4. P1 16:36FLAColton SceviourAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
  5. P1 18:52FLAJared McCannAssists: Denis Malgin, Keith Yandle · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–1
  6. P2 1:48WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Jakub Vrana, Christian Djoos · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
  7. P2 8:38WSHJakub VranaAssists: Lars Eller, Brett Connolly · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
  8. P2 13:15WSHDevante Smith-PellyAssists: Matt Niskanen, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–4
  9. P2 19:09FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Mike Hoffman · Backhand, 0.43 xG5–4
  10. P3 18:35WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Lars Eller, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–5

Shootout

  1. 1. WSH T.J. Oshie scored
  2. 2. FLA Aleksander Barkov scored
  3. 3. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
  4. 4. FLA Nick Bjugstad stopped
  5. 5. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
  6. 6. FLA Vincent Trocheck scored
  7. 7. WSH Nicklas Backstrom stopped
  8. 8. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 6:10WSHJakub Vrana: Slashing2 min
  2. P1 15:41WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min · PPG
  3. P2 3:50FLAKeith Yandle: High sticking2 min
  4. P2 9:51WSHChristian Djoos: Interference2 min
  5. P2 9:51FLAFrank Vatrano: Embellishment2 min
  6. P2 17:18WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 18:03WSHBrett Connolly: Too many men on the ice2 min
  8. P2 19:52WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  9. P3 7:38FLAVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
  10. P3 8:29WSHT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
  11. P3 16:52FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Interference2 min · PPG
  12. P3 19:37WSHMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

FLA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0WSH
46% to win54% to win
← FLA attackWSH attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Backstrom
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

FLAWSH
30Shots on goal31
4.2Expected goals3.1
54Shot attempts64
33Faceoffs won32
7Power plays3
8Penalty minutes16
20Hits28
20Blocked shots12
11Giveaways15
11Takeaways14

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestSceviour – Trocheck – Huberdeau10:11

    xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0

  2. McCann – Vatrano – Malgin6:49

    xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1

  3. Dadonov – Bjugstad – Barkov11:55

    xG 0.41–0.30 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0

  4. Brouwer – Hoffman – Lammikko3:29

    xG 0.00–0.74 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–2

Defence pairs

  1. bestYandle – Ekblad16:48

    xG 1.08–0.57 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 1–2

  2. Petrovic – Pysyk7:35

    xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0

  3. Weegar – Kiselevich6:42

    xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–1

Washington Capitals

Forward lines

  1. bestOshie – Backstrom – Stephenson5:33

    xG 0.72–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0

  2. Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Smith-Pelly6:50

    xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0

  3. Dowd – Jaskin – Burakovsky4:19

    xG 0.17–0.02 (88%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0

  4. Eller – Connolly – Vrana4:52

    xG 0.15–0.03 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 2–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestOrpik – Djoos6:41

    xG 0.61–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0

  2. Carlson – Kempny13:56

    xG 0.68–0.45 (60%)attempts 15–13goals 2–1

  3. Niskanen – Orlov14:49

    xG 0.30–0.58 (35%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

WSH 3.1 xGFLA 4.2 xG
01234P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

WSHFLA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 100/100 · #2 of 1271 this seasonSwing 2.91 · 10 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 45% (winner's lowest chance)
FLA 100%5050%50WSH 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +44 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 69% of the time.

WSH winsFLA wins

Simulated goal difference (WSH − FLA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).