Fri, Oct 19, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 3, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 08 | 013 | 315 | 336 |
| DAL | 06 | 024 | 14 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:36DALJason SpezzaAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 9:37MINMathew DumbaAssists: Mikael Granlund, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 12:54MINRyan SuterGWGAssists: Eric Staal, Jason Zucker · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 19:00MINZach PariseENAssists: Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.77 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:15DALJulius Honka: Interference2 min
- P1 14:54MINMatt Read: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:07MINGreg Pateryn: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:38DALJohn Klingberg: Holding2 min
- P2 16:37MINRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Granlund13:10
xG 1.22–0.46 (73%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Greenway8:52
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Read11:26
xG 0.68–0.53 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown9:43
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba19:36
xG 1.99–0.77 (72%)attempts 24–19goals 2–0
- Pateryn – Seeler13:17
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin12:58
xG 0.61–0.50 (55%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Hintz11:41
xG 0.24–0.18 (58%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Smith – Dickinson4:55
xG 0.05–0.18 (23%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Pitlick – Shore8:55
xG 0.51–0.80 (39%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Janmark7:56
xG 0.36–1.09 (25%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Klingberg – Lindell19:15
xG 0.67–0.75 (47%)attempts 21–16goals 0–1
- Polak – Honka8:32
xG 0.30–0.50 (37%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Methot – Heiskanen11:46
xG 0.39–1.20 (25%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).