Fri, Oct 19, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Nashville Predators 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 210 | 213 | 531 |
| CGY | 13 | 110 | 114 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:51NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Filip Forsberg, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 18:43CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 4:09NSHCraig SmithAssists: Kyle Turris, Kevin Fiala · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 12:51CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Mark Giordano · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 14:23NSHKevin FialaPPAssists: Ryan Ellis, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 2:20CGYSam BennettAssists: Derek Ryan, Michael Stone · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 6:31NSHZac RinaldoGWGAssists: Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:28NSHFilip ForsbergENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 11:35NSHViktor Arvidsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:53CGYJames Neal: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 8:12CGYMichael Frolik: Interference2 min
- P3 15:41NSHKevin Fiala: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Fiala12:21
xG 0.96–0.51 (65%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:55
xG 0.98–0.59 (62%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Salomaki – Sissons4:40
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Sissons – Hartman2:18
xG 0.05–0.03 (59%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm16:36
xG 0.60–0.26 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Josi – Ellis17:28
xG 1.24–0.92 (58%)attempts 16–18goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Weber13:01
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestNeal – Bennett – Ryan6:50
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Hathaway – Ryan – Dube4:22
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk12:38
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett5:47
xG 0.06–0.16 (28%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Välimäki14:18
xG 0.59–0.47 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Giordano – Brodie18:06
xG 0.97–1.07 (48%)attempts 23–17goals 1–1
- Hanifin – Andersson15:14
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).